徐州市水土流失时空变化研究     

陈报章  渠俊峰  葛梦玉  沈艳文  王安妮  王国斌 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(11):1622-1630

本文以3S技术为支撑,在修正水土流失方程（RUSLE）的基础上,针对徐州黄泛平原-丘陵地带的特殊地形地貌、对2000年以来徐州市水土流失时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：2000-2014年徐州市土壤侵蚀等级以微度为主,微度侵蚀面积占总侵蚀面积多年平均达到76.34%;中度侵蚀次之,所占比例在10%~17%间;剧烈侵蚀所占比例最少。轻度及以上土壤侵蚀等级主要发生在中部微山湖下游、京杭大运河一带的丘陵岗地地区、主城区与故黄河北岸的黄泛平原地区,以及丰县、新沂、邳州的局部区域;土壤侵蚀存在一定程度年际变化特征,睢宁、丰县、邳州的部分地区侵蚀面积年际变化较为明显,土壤侵蚀总面积整体上呈现下降趋势。  相似文献   

水文重力效应改正中一维地下水模拟算法的对比     

贺前钱  孙和平 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(5):529-532

基于一维地下水渗透方程详细推导其有限差分解算过程，引入不同于显式差分的隐式差分和中心差分格式，对比分析不同差分格式对地下水模拟结果及其相应地下水重力效应的影响，并对其中的层间参数取值和非线性方程的线性化问题进行探讨。结果表明，在日本Isawa扇形地区超导台站，不同层间参数加权公式能够引起最大约0.15 μGal的重力效应差异，影响在1.9%以内；不同差分格式和线性化方法组合形式能够引起最大约0.12 μGal的重力效应差异，影响在1.5%以内。  相似文献   

Comparison of environmental tracers including organic micropollutants as groundwater exfiltration indicators into a small river of a karstic catchment     

Clarissa Glaser  Marc Schwientek  Tobias Junginger  Benjamin Silas Gilfedder  Sven Frei  Martina Werneburg  Christian Zwiener  Christiane Zarfl 《水文研究》2020,34(24):4712-4726

Understanding groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions is vital for water management in karstic catchments due to its impact on water quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the applicability of seven environmental tracers to quantify and localize groundwater exfiltration into a small, human-impacted karstic river system. Tracers were selected based on their emission source to the surface water either as (a) dissolved, predominantly geogenic compounds (radon-222, sulphate and electrical conductivity) or (b) anthropogenic compounds (predominantly) originating from wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents (carbamazepine, tramadol, sodium, chloride). Two contrasting sampling approaches were compared (a) assuming steady-state flow conditions and (b) considering the travel time of the water parcels (Lagrangian sampling) through the catchment to account for diurnal changes in inflow from the WWTP. Spatial variability of the concentrations of all tracers indicated sections of preferential groundwater inflow. Lagrangian sampling techniques seem highly relevant for capturing dynamic concentration patterns of WWTP-derived compounds. Quantification of GW inflow with the finite element model FINIFLUX, based on observed in-stream Rn activities led to plausible fluxes along the investigated river reaches (0.265 m³ s⁻¹), while observations of other natural or anthropogenic environmental tracers produced less plausible water fluxes. Important point sources of groundwater exfiltration can be ascribed to locations where the river crosses geological fault lines. This indicates that commonly applied concepts describing groundwater–surface water interactions assuming diffuse flow in porous media are difficult to transfer to karstic river systems whereas concepts from fractured aquifers may be more applicable. In general, this study helps selecting the best suited hydrological tracer for GW exfiltration and leads to a better understanding of processes controlling groundwater inflow into karstic river systems.  相似文献   

基于空间自相关的阿根廷滑柔鱼CPUE标准化研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李娜  陈新军  王冉 《海洋学报》2018,40(2):61-68

CPUE的观测往往不是独立的，而是存在空间相关性的。但是，大多数的CPUE标准化方法通常都假设名义CPUE在空间上是相互独立的。为此，本研究以西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼为例，采用2000-2014年1-5月中国大陆鱿钓生产统计数据以及对应的海表温度和叶绿素浓度数据，选择广义线性模型（general linear model，GLM）为基础模型，将空间自相关加入到GLM中，比较标准GLM和4种加入空间自相关的空间GLM的CPUE标准化。根据最小信息准则（Akaike Information Criterion，AIC）及贝叶斯信息准则（Bayesian Information Criterion，BIC），空间自相关的GLM的CPUE标准化结果优于标准GLM，其中指数模型的CPUE标准化结果最佳。同时，标准GLM与空间自相关的GLM相比，存在精确度过高估计的问题。因此，在CPUE标准化中，应充分考虑空间自相关这一因素。  相似文献   

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)     

《Ocean Modelling》2015

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.  相似文献   

An alternative Boussinesq equation considering the effect of hysteresis on coastal groundwater waves          下载免费PDF全文

Jun Kong  Zhaoyang Luo  Chengji Shen  Guofen Hua  Hongjun Zhao 《水文研究》2016,30(15):2657-2670

This paper presents an alternative Boussinesq equation considering hysteresis effect via a third‐order derivative term. By introducing an improved moisture–pressure retention function, this equation describes, with reasonable precision, groundwater propagation in coastal aquifers subject to Dirichlet boundary condition of different oscillation frequencies. Test results confirmed that it is necessary to consider horizontal and vertical flows in unsaturated zone, because of their variable influences on hysteresis. Hysteresis in unsaturated zone can affect the water table wave number of groundwater wave motion, such as wave damping rate and phase lag. Oscillations with different periods exert different hysteresis effect on wave propagation. Truncation/shrinkage of unsaturated zones also affects the strength of hysteresis. These impacts can be reflected in the alternative Boussinesq equation by adjusting the parameter representing the variation rate of moisture associated with pressure change, as opposed to traditional computationally expensive hysteresis algorithms. The present Boussinesq equation is simple to use and can provide feasible basis for future coupling of groundwater and surface water models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A method to estimate the longshore sediment transport at ebb-tidal deltas based on their volumetric growth: Application to the Guadiana (Spain–Portugal border)     

Erwan Garel  Alejandro López-Ruiz  Óscar Ferreira 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(13):2557-2569

Current techniques assessing longshore sediment transport rates have large uncertainties, pleading for the development of alternative and complementary approaches. The present study proposes a method to estimate the decadal average rate of longshore transport at modern ebb-tidal deltas based on a sediment budget analysis of the outer shoal growth. This transport is obtained as the balance of the other contributions to the shoal with the total sediment input rate obtained from an inverse application of the inlet reservoir model. The method is applied to the Guadiana ebb-tidal delta, yielding an average longshore sediment transport rate (~85 000 m3 year⁻¹) in good agreement with expectations for the region. It is exemplified that this decadal averaged rate can be used to improve longshore sediment transport expressions in order to study its variability over shorter time scales. At the Guadiana, the yearly longshore sediment transport from the improved formula ranges from ~25 000 m³ (westward) to ~245 000 m³ (eastward) and is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Overall, the proposed method constitutes an alternative tool to constrain the average longshore sediment transport rate over decades in the vicinity of tidal inlets. It is applicable to ebb-tidal deltas where the outer shoal growth (from an early to a mature stage) is well documented by bathymetric maps, and where the main transport pathways towards the outer shoal can be specified. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

时间尺度重构EEMD-GRNN改进模型预测PM2.5的研究     

符海月  张祎婷 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(7):1132-1142

合理构建PM_2.5浓度预测模型是科学、准确地预测PM_2.5浓度变化的关键。传统PM_2.5预测EEMD-GRNN模型具有较好的预测精度,但是存在过于关注研究数据本身而忽略其物理意义的不足。本研究基于南京市2014-2017年PM_2.5浓度时间序列数据,分析PM_2.5浓度多尺度变化特征及其对气象因子和大气污染因子的尺度响应,基于时间尺度重构进行EEMD-GRNN模型的改进与实证研究。南京市样本数据PM_2.5浓度变化表现为明显的天际尺度和月际尺度,从重构尺度（天际、月际）构建GRNN模型更具有现实意义;同时,PM_2.5对PM₁₀、NO₂、O₃、RH、MinT等因子存在多尺度响应效应,以其作为GRNN模型中的输入变量更具有时间序列上的解释意义。改进后的EEMD-GRNN模型具有更高的PM_2.5浓度预测精度,MAE、MAPE、RMSE和R²分别为6.17、18.41%、8.32和0.95,而传统EEMD-GRNN模型的模型有效性检验结果分别为8.37、27.56%、11.56、0.91。对于高浓度天（PM_2.5浓度大于100 μg/m³）的预测,改进模型更是全面优于传统EEMD-GRNN模型,MAPE为12.02%,相较于传统模型提高了9.03%。  相似文献   

基于拉格朗日拟序结构的吕宋海峡表层水交换研究     

郑哲昊  庄伟  胡建宇  吴泽轮  刘长建 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(11):21-32

黑潮通过吕宋海峡入侵南海呈现明显的瞬态特征。以往的研究通常将黑潮在吕宋海峡附近的流态分为几种不同类型。本文基于表层地转流计算得到的有限时间李雅普诺夫指数场（FTLE），展示了拉格朗日视角下的吕宋海峡上层水交换特征。从FTLE场提取的拉格朗日拟序结构（LCSs）很好地识别了吕宋海峡附近的典型流态和旋涡活动。此外，这些LCSs还揭示了吕宋海峡周围复杂的输运路径和流体域，这些特征得到了卫星跟踪浮标轨迹的验证，且从流速场中是无法直接识别的。FTLE场显示，吕宋海峡附近表层水体的输运形态主要可分为四类。其中，黑潮直接向北流动的“跨越”形态和顺时针旋转的“流套”形态的发生频次明显高于直接进入南海的黑潮分支“渗入”形态和南海水流出至太平洋的“外流”形态。本文还进一步分析了黑潮在吕宋海峡处的涡旋脱落事件，突出强调了LCSs在评估涡旋输运方面的重要性。反气旋涡旋的脱落个例表明，这些涡旋主要源自黑潮“流套”，涡旋脱落之前可有效地俘获黑潮水。LCS所指示的输运通道信息有助于预测最终被反气旋涡所挟卷水体在上游的位置。而在气旋涡的形成过程中，LCS的分布特征表明，大部分气旋涡并未与黑潮水的输运路径相连通。因此，气旋涡对从太平洋到南海的上层水交换的贡献较小。  相似文献   

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献